LOW COST INVESTING? YES!
January 18, 2018

Most people do it wrong most of the time… including the professionals. Now you might have already guessed from the title of the article that I am not referring to cooking, gardening, or even your favorite indoor sport (mind out of the gutter please… for me I was thinking of killing Zombies with my daughter on Xbox). Rather, I am referring to investing, and in particular three aspects of investing – remaining diversified, minimizing costs, and buying assets cheaply. Today is about minimizing costs (see “International Diversification Works!” written back in April if you want an introduction to behavioral finance and the tricks we play on ourselves when it comes to inadvertently and often dangerously concentrating our investments). Valuing stocks is for another day…


But before I shift to detailing the wonderful benefits of low-cost investing, let me make note of some feedback I’ve gotten about a couple of my recent articles on the economy and capital markets.


I’ve heard from a number of you that I am too bearish on stocks and bonds, worry too much about losing money, and generally don’t understand that the current environment is different from past periods of excess. After all, this time the Federal Reserve and the other Central Banks around the world are working magic with quantitative easing. Equity markets can’t fall and interest rates can’t rise as long as central banks are committed to flooding the world with liquidity (Hey pay no attention to that 10-year Treasury rate. Well okay it HAS moved from a low of around 1.4% to 2.8%, but surely the Federal Reserve is okay with the better than doubling in rates, or wouldn’t they have done something about it by now?)


Those of you who are blindly putting their faith in the academic bureaucrats who are experimenting with monetary policy might prove right in the end. Perhaps the world’s central banks will prevail this time… or perhaps not (my bet). But for now let’s put aside our little difference of opinion and look into the wonderful world of low-cost investing for the simple reason that reducing our investment costs should be something we can all agree on since lowering costs is tantamount to increasing return!


Cost and price, perhaps the two most important aspects of successful long-term investing, yet all too often ignored by far too many investors. Reducing investment costs is an obvious no-brainer since the increased payoff is guaranteed – reducing your costs equals increasing your return and increasing your return means an improved retirement. Who could possibly object to more money in retirement? Sadly, it is quite common for people to pay little to no attention to their investment costs, a wealth sapping oversight that can cost them dearly. A very recent personal example is indicative of how little attention many people pay to investment costs and how much those costs are… costing them.


The investor was paying his advisor 1.5% per year (or perhaps 1.3%, the investor wasn’t quite sure). The amount invested with the advisor was $1.1 million. The investments in the portfolio were costing the investor another 1% per year on average. The advisor had also sold the investor two variable annuities and at least one private REIT (nice commissions for both). The investor was paying at least 2.5% per year all-in (ignoring the commissions), or at least $27,500 per year, counting just the advisor fee and underlying investment expenses. As an aside, it didn’t sound as if the advisor was doing much for his fee other than handing the investor’s money over to some mediocre mutual fund companies to actually invest. Yet he was nevertheless receiving around $14,300 per year (using the lower 1.3% advisor fee estimate) for his minimal efforts.


And the true cost to the investor? Conservatively, about $13,000 per year since he could have cut his expenses in half by moving into a lower cost portfolio with an advisor who charged a smaller fee (which is almost any advisor for a portfolio over $1 million). Total savings, not counting profits on the money saved over a 20 year period? Why $260,000! Now for most people that’s serious cheddar! Unbelievably, the investor chose to stay with his guy because in his own words, “I don’t make changes very often.” Hello? $260,0000!!!!!


Amazingly, I run into case after case where an investor seems inured to expenses and happily confides that, “His guy is swell and that he plays golf with me. Yep, he is really nice!”


Hello?? $260,000!!!!!! (Actually more because that money isn’t available to make money for you. It wouldn’t be at all unreasonable to assume another $100k after 20 years from investment returns).


Reducing costs increases returns net-of-fees. Increasing returns net-of-fees increases wealth, resulting in additional purchasing power in retirement. Now who can object to that?

By Christopher Norwood February 17, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P finished the week at 6,114.69 The 2-year yield hit 4.38% after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released on Wednesday, but ended the week at 4.27% Investors dumped stocks when the CPI report was released Producer Price Index (PPI) has accelerated for five straight months PPI is a leading indicator of consumer inflation Inflation expectations are rising among fixed-income investors The 5- &10-year breakevens are rising The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood February 10, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P finished the week at 6025.99 The S&P has been trading sideways since 11 November Volatility (VIX) has spiked five times since last fall each time falling quickly back to mid-teen levels Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have contributed to the negative tone with cautious guidance The Equity Risk Premium has been falling over the last 14 years Bonds have been a horrible investment over the last three, five, and ten years The jobs market continues to show strength Consumers' inflation expectations are increasing The stock market is expensive and will return less than its long-term average over the next decade Good stock picking will be critical if investors are to earn a return close to the long run average. The equity risk premium is too low which may make Treasury bonds a better investment than stocks on a risk adjusted basis over the next decade. Treasury bonds may outperform stocks over the next decade but not necessarily over the next few years since the 10-Year could rise another 100 basis points in the short term. The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood February 3, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P fell 1% last week, closing Friday at 6,040.53 The index hasn’t been able to break clear of resistance The AI space took a big hit Monday Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China GDP grew 2.3% annually in Q4 The futures market expected the funds rate to remain at 4.25-4.50% and it did The employment cost index (ECI) for Q4 2024 rose 0.9% QoQ Pending home sales took a hit in December The stock market continues to trend higher There is a relationship between the stock market and the economy More Interesting Charts to review 
By Christopher Norwood January 27, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P hit a new high on Thursday, reaching 6,128.18. The Volatility Index (VIX) fell to a low of 14.85 The VIX has declined sharply from 27.6 The 5.4% decline from 6 December to 13 January doesn’t qualify as a correction Watch Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates for the stock market's near-term direction Don't miss the Charts Worth Seeing at the bottom
By Christopher Norwood January 20, 2025
Executive Summary The stock market's best week since Donald Trump’s re-election in November The S&P 500 rose 2.91% The CME FedWatch tool is predicting one cut in 2025 The fundamental narrative was all about inflation Earnings season is in full swing starting this week Higher than-expected interest rates and inflation might put downward pressure on stocks. Inflation expectations have been rising 2025 is likely to be a volatile year for the capital markets Deglobalization means higher inflation
By Christopher Norwood January 13, 2025
Executive Summary The jobs report on Friday sparked stock and bond market selling Economic data hasn't justified rate cuts The Bond market has been signaling its disagreement with the Fed since the September cut The 10-year Treasury Yield is rising. Bond investors see inflation risks The Jobs market is strong Disinflation is slowing Investors should expect more volatility in 2025 Diversification means less portfolio volatility but also lower returns True diversification means always owning something that is underperforming  Diversified portfolios will trail during a bull market
By Christopher Norwood January 6, 2025
Executive Summary The Santa Claus rally was a no-show this year Friday's jobs report might bring volatility Economic data continues to point toward a strong economy The stock market is near all-time highs Corporate bond spreads are near record tights Liquidity is abundant No signs of a recession. The Fed is backing away from aggressive rate cuts. Inflation concerns are re-emerging  2024 in Review
By Christopher Norwood December 23, 2024
Executive Summary The Stock Market dropped 2% last week The Dow ended its losing streak at 10 The Fed cut interest rates by a quarter-point last Wednesday Fewer rate cuts could mean slower economic growth and slower earnings growth Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Sløk predicts a 40% chance of Fed rate hikes in 2025 Value stocks continue to lag growth stocks and the overall market Value will make a comeback. It always does. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes~ Mark Twain
By Christopher Norwood December 16, 2024
Executive Summary 50-years of S&P 500 data The Dow ended Friday on a seven-day losing streak 96% chance the Fed will cut by 0.25% this week Stock market strategists are expecting more S&P 500 gains in 2025 Value Investing Outperforms over the Long Run Value can be found in international and emerging markets today Value can be found in the U.S. stock market, but it takes patience
By Christopher Norwood December 9, 2024
Executive Summary Jobless claims report higher than forecast The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell to 12.77, that's low Why is the Fed cutting at all? The S&P likely to finish the year above its current level The 10-year & 2-year Treasury yield are falling The Fed continues cutting despite a strong jobs market and high inflation Investors should look at the “low-flyer” companies that represent better value Mental Accounting and Risk 
More Posts
Share by: