LOW COST INVESTING? YES!
January 18, 2018

Most people do it wrong most of the time… including the professionals. Now you might have already guessed from the title of the article that I am not referring to cooking, gardening, or even your favorite indoor sport (mind out of the gutter please… for me I was thinking of killing Zombies with my daughter on Xbox). Rather, I am referring to investing, and in particular three aspects of investing – remaining diversified, minimizing costs, and buying assets cheaply. Today is about minimizing costs (see “International Diversification Works!” written back in April if you want an introduction to behavioral finance and the tricks we play on ourselves when it comes to inadvertently and often dangerously concentrating our investments). Valuing stocks is for another day…


But before I shift to detailing the wonderful benefits of low-cost investing, let me make note of some feedback I’ve gotten about a couple of my recent articles on the economy and capital markets.


I’ve heard from a number of you that I am too bearish on stocks and bonds, worry too much about losing money, and generally don’t understand that the current environment is different from past periods of excess. After all, this time the Federal Reserve and the other Central Banks around the world are working magic with quantitative easing. Equity markets can’t fall and interest rates can’t rise as long as central banks are committed to flooding the world with liquidity (Hey pay no attention to that 10-year Treasury rate. Well okay it HAS moved from a low of around 1.4% to 2.8%, but surely the Federal Reserve is okay with the better than doubling in rates, or wouldn’t they have done something about it by now?)


Those of you who are blindly putting their faith in the academic bureaucrats who are experimenting with monetary policy might prove right in the end. Perhaps the world’s central banks will prevail this time… or perhaps not (my bet). But for now let’s put aside our little difference of opinion and look into the wonderful world of low-cost investing for the simple reason that reducing our investment costs should be something we can all agree on since lowering costs is tantamount to increasing return!


Cost and price, perhaps the two most important aspects of successful long-term investing, yet all too often ignored by far too many investors. Reducing investment costs is an obvious no-brainer since the increased payoff is guaranteed – reducing your costs equals increasing your return and increasing your return means an improved retirement. Who could possibly object to more money in retirement? Sadly, it is quite common for people to pay little to no attention to their investment costs, a wealth sapping oversight that can cost them dearly. A very recent personal example is indicative of how little attention many people pay to investment costs and how much those costs are… costing them.


The investor was paying his advisor 1.5% per year (or perhaps 1.3%, the investor wasn’t quite sure). The amount invested with the advisor was $1.1 million. The investments in the portfolio were costing the investor another 1% per year on average. The advisor had also sold the investor two variable annuities and at least one private REIT (nice commissions for both). The investor was paying at least 2.5% per year all-in (ignoring the commissions), or at least $27,500 per year, counting just the advisor fee and underlying investment expenses. As an aside, it didn’t sound as if the advisor was doing much for his fee other than handing the investor’s money over to some mediocre mutual fund companies to actually invest. Yet he was nevertheless receiving around $14,300 per year (using the lower 1.3% advisor fee estimate) for his minimal efforts.


And the true cost to the investor? Conservatively, about $13,000 per year since he could have cut his expenses in half by moving into a lower cost portfolio with an advisor who charged a smaller fee (which is almost any advisor for a portfolio over $1 million). Total savings, not counting profits on the money saved over a 20 year period? Why $260,000! Now for most people that’s serious cheddar! Unbelievably, the investor chose to stay with his guy because in his own words, “I don’t make changes very often.” Hello? $260,0000!!!!!


Amazingly, I run into case after case where an investor seems inured to expenses and happily confides that, “His guy is swell and that he plays golf with me. Yep, he is really nice!”


Hello?? $260,000!!!!!! (Actually more because that money isn’t available to make money for you. It wouldn’t be at all unreasonable to assume another $100k after 20 years from investment returns).


Reducing costs increases returns net-of-fees. Increasing returns net-of-fees increases wealth, resulting in additional purchasing power in retirement. Now who can object to that?

By Christopher Norwood October 13, 2025
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By Christopher Norwood October 6, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to close the week at 6715.79 The Nasdaq was down 0.3% last week The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.99%. The government shutdown materialized on Wednesday The Fed is expected to cut the funds rate by another quarter point in October Unemployment isn’t rising, and consumers are still spending Recession red flags The last 18 years have been unusual A recession is not Norwood Economics’ base case
By Christopher Norwood September 29, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week to finish at 6,643.66 The Dow, Nasdaq, and Tech sector ended lower as well The S&P average annual total return is 7.9% since the 2000 market peak The economy grew 3.8% in Q2 (third estimate), up from the prior 3.3% second estimate Financial conditions remain loose The 10-year Treasury yield has little room to fall from current levels The elderly and poor suffer most from the impacts of inflation Norwood Economics manages diversified portfolios This time is NOT different The S&P might see negative returns over the next decade Economic growth is the lowest in the past 25 years There are no piles of cash sitting on the sidelines The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood September 22, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.2% last week to finish at 6,664.36 The S&P 500 is up 13.31% year-to-date The S&P is expensive The Fed updated its “Dot Plot” The 10-year yield rose last week despite the Fed’s rate cut The Fed is signaling at least two more rate cuts by year's end A pullback of 10% or so wouldn’t be unusual, but there’s no data signaling recession yet The top ten most expensive S&P 500 companies make up over 39% of the market cap UBS economists estimate a 93% chance that the US will slip into a recession this year Investors should review their portfolios before the next bear market The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood September 15, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.6% last week to finish at 6,584.3 The stock market rises long-term due to earnings growth and interest rates A stock is ownership in a business Investors are willing to pay more for a dollar’s worth of earnings today than in the past Profit margins are already near record highs The Volatility Index (VIX) closed the week at 14.76 The market is setting new highs The CME FedWatch tool places the odds at 100% for a rate cut Wednesday The August jobs report and last week’s jobs revision are driving rate cut expectations Cutting the fed funds rate isn’t the answer to slower job growth Higher long-term rates will negate any benefit from a rate cut The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood September 8, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week to finish at 6,481.50 The CAPE ratio is currently at its second highest reading ever Valuation is a lousy timing mechanism, but an excellent predictor of future returns Interest rates declined last week The 2-Year Treasury yield fell to 3.51% by the close on Friday The 10-Year Treasury yield also fell, ending the week at 4.10%. The CME FedWatch tool has the odds at 73% of a Fed funds rate of 3.50% to 3.75% or lower by year's end The weak jobs report on Friday showed that only 22,000 new jobs were added in August Unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4.2%. The aggregate weekly payrolls index fell to 4.4% in August “We’re back in that world of uncertainty," states Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth  The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood September 2, 2025
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By Christopher Norwood August 25, 2025
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By Christopher Norwood August 18, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.01% last week to finish at 6,449.80 The stock market keeps hitting new highs Market strategists are expecting earnings growth to accelerate in 2026 Margins remain near record highs Corporate profit margins will likely take a hit from tariffs Passing tariff costs on to the consumer means raising prices Core CPI rose by 0.3% in July The PPI jumped 0.9% last month, the largest monthly increase in more than three years Buffett says it’s dangerous when the market cap rises to more than 140% of GDP. Currently, the ratio is above 200%. The massive increase in the Fed's balance sheet over the last 25 years has led to financial asset price inflation The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 11, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 2.43% last week, climbing to 6,389.45 Interest rates didn’t move much last week The economy is slowing according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Real final sales to Private Domestic Purchasers are slowing The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services index fell from 50.8 to 50.1. The index is only two-tenths away from showing contraction The employment sub-index of the Services Index report was also weak The prices paid sub-index continues to climb Norwood Economics manages its clients' diversified portfolios with a focus on the long run The Stock Market