LOW COST INVESTING? YES!
January 18, 2018

Most people do it wrong most of the time… including the professionals. Now you might have already guessed from the title of the article that I am not referring to cooking, gardening, or even your favorite indoor sport (mind out of the gutter please… for me I was thinking of killing Zombies with my daughter on Xbox). Rather, I am referring to investing, and in particular three aspects of investing – remaining diversified, minimizing costs, and buying assets cheaply. Today is about minimizing costs (see “International Diversification Works!” written back in April if you want an introduction to behavioral finance and the tricks we play on ourselves when it comes to inadvertently and often dangerously concentrating our investments). Valuing stocks is for another day…


But before I shift to detailing the wonderful benefits of low-cost investing, let me make note of some feedback I’ve gotten about a couple of my recent articles on the economy and capital markets.


I’ve heard from a number of you that I am too bearish on stocks and bonds, worry too much about losing money, and generally don’t understand that the current environment is different from past periods of excess. After all, this time the Federal Reserve and the other Central Banks around the world are working magic with quantitative easing. Equity markets can’t fall and interest rates can’t rise as long as central banks are committed to flooding the world with liquidity (Hey pay no attention to that 10-year Treasury rate. Well okay it HAS moved from a low of around 1.4% to 2.8%, but surely the Federal Reserve is okay with the better than doubling in rates, or wouldn’t they have done something about it by now?)


Those of you who are blindly putting their faith in the academic bureaucrats who are experimenting with monetary policy might prove right in the end. Perhaps the world’s central banks will prevail this time… or perhaps not (my bet). But for now let’s put aside our little difference of opinion and look into the wonderful world of low-cost investing for the simple reason that reducing our investment costs should be something we can all agree on since lowering costs is tantamount to increasing return!


Cost and price, perhaps the two most important aspects of successful long-term investing, yet all too often ignored by far too many investors. Reducing investment costs is an obvious no-brainer since the increased payoff is guaranteed – reducing your costs equals increasing your return and increasing your return means an improved retirement. Who could possibly object to more money in retirement? Sadly, it is quite common for people to pay little to no attention to their investment costs, a wealth sapping oversight that can cost them dearly. A very recent personal example is indicative of how little attention many people pay to investment costs and how much those costs are… costing them.


The investor was paying his advisor 1.5% per year (or perhaps 1.3%, the investor wasn’t quite sure). The amount invested with the advisor was $1.1 million. The investments in the portfolio were costing the investor another 1% per year on average. The advisor had also sold the investor two variable annuities and at least one private REIT (nice commissions for both). The investor was paying at least 2.5% per year all-in (ignoring the commissions), or at least $27,500 per year, counting just the advisor fee and underlying investment expenses. As an aside, it didn’t sound as if the advisor was doing much for his fee other than handing the investor’s money over to some mediocre mutual fund companies to actually invest. Yet he was nevertheless receiving around $14,300 per year (using the lower 1.3% advisor fee estimate) for his minimal efforts.


And the true cost to the investor? Conservatively, about $13,000 per year since he could have cut his expenses in half by moving into a lower cost portfolio with an advisor who charged a smaller fee (which is almost any advisor for a portfolio over $1 million). Total savings, not counting profits on the money saved over a 20 year period? Why $260,000! Now for most people that’s serious cheddar! Unbelievably, the investor chose to stay with his guy because in his own words, “I don’t make changes very often.” Hello? $260,0000!!!!!


Amazingly, I run into case after case where an investor seems inured to expenses and happily confides that, “His guy is swell and that he plays golf with me. Yep, he is really nice!”


Hello?? $260,000!!!!!! (Actually more because that money isn’t available to make money for you. It wouldn’t be at all unreasonable to assume another $100k after 20 years from investment returns).


Reducing costs increases returns net-of-fees. Increasing returns net-of-fees increases wealth, resulting in additional purchasing power in retirement. Now who can object to that?

By Christopher Norwood November 17, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 was flat last week The U.S. government is once again open for business Markets thrive when liquidity rises GDP grows faster when the government spends more The odds that the Fed will cut a quarter-point on December 10th fell to 45.8% The S&P 500 is a concentrated index, heavily weighted toward technology Diversification reduces risk without necessarily reducing return Deciding when to take Social Security is about maximizing your benefit (A quick note this week due to travel on my part. You’ll find a variety of comments about last week’s market and events that may impact the stock and bond markets. Also, some thoughts on conversations with clients.) The S&P 500 was flat last week and is testing its 50-day moving average again (purple line below). We may see a down week this week. A fall below November 7th’s low of 6631.44 would likely lead to a further drop. A lower high and lower low would be in place, the definition of a down trend.
By Christopher Norwood November 10, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 1.6% last week to close at 6,728.8 There was a widespread sell-off in the Tech space The Nasdaq Composite had its worst week since the week ending April 4th The jobs market is a concern for the Federal Reserve Data is scarce, but the jobs market seems steady U.S. services sector economic activity picked up in October A diversified portfolio is more important for risk management than ever The S&P 500 fell 1.6% last week to close at 6,728.8. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.1% on the week. The declines were blamed on a report released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, according to Barron’s. But the market fell throughout the week. The Challenger Gray report wasn't released until Thursday. The report may have helped sink the market last week, but it wasn't the lone catalyst.
By Christopher Norwood November 3, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.7% last week to finish at 6,840.20 The S&P is up 16.3% year-to-date A stock represents ownership in a business The S&P 500 is rising at an increasing rate, and that can't go on forever Profit margins have been stable over the long run The Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate by one quarter point last Wednesday, but why? Inflation appears nowhere near declining to the Fed’s 2% target The annualized headline CPI September number was the second-highest since January Inflation is hurting the lowest 50% of income earners in the U.S.
By Christopher Norwood October 27, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.9% last week The Fed will cut the Fed funds rate by 0.25% this week. The funds rate is currently 4.00% to 4.25%. Financial conditions are already easy The stock market is setting new highs Gold typically does best when liquidity is abundant Gold is up 54% YTD Bond investors seem to be signaling a recession ahead Stock investors see blue skies instead The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood October 20, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.7% last week to finish at 6664.01 The Nasdaq & the Dow Jones rose as well last week We had an inside day last Monday, then an inside week Earnings season is here The four credit events might snowball into something more serious Credit spreads have started to react, widening over the last two weeks Bond yields fell (yields down, price up) last week The dollar index is also falling The Federal Reserve has been draining excess reserves from the system since 2022 It appears as if the Fed has no choice but to end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 1.7% last week to finish at 6664.01. The Nasdaq 100 was up 2.4% and the Dow was up around 1.5%.
By Christopher Norwood October 13, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500, Nasdaq & the Dow Jones fell last week President Trump tanked the market Friday with a post about trade talk troubles with China The S&P 500 still has a lot of momentum, though Bond investors aren’t expecting a recession any time soon The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tool is estimating 3.8% real GDP growth for Q3 The AI boom is increasingly dependent on circular cash flows The U.S. stock market has a lot of exposure to AI The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood October 6, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to close the week at 6715.79 The Nasdaq was down 0.3% last week The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.99%. The government shutdown materialized on Wednesday The Fed is expected to cut the funds rate by another quarter point in October Unemployment isn’t rising, and consumers are still spending Recession red flags The last 18 years have been unusual A recession is not Norwood Economics’ base case
By Christopher Norwood September 29, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week to finish at 6,643.66 The Dow, Nasdaq, and Tech sector ended lower as well The S&P average annual total return is 7.9% since the 2000 market peak The economy grew 3.8% in Q2 (third estimate), up from the prior 3.3% second estimate Financial conditions remain loose The 10-year Treasury yield has little room to fall from current levels The elderly and poor suffer most from the impacts of inflation Norwood Economics manages diversified portfolios This time is NOT different The S&P might see negative returns over the next decade Economic growth is the lowest in the past 25 years There are no piles of cash sitting on the sidelines The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood September 22, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.2% last week to finish at 6,664.36 The S&P 500 is up 13.31% year-to-date The S&P is expensive The Fed updated its “Dot Plot” The 10-year yield rose last week despite the Fed’s rate cut The Fed is signaling at least two more rate cuts by year's end A pullback of 10% or so wouldn’t be unusual, but there’s no data signaling recession yet The top ten most expensive S&P 500 companies make up over 39% of the market cap UBS economists estimate a 93% chance that the US will slip into a recession this year Investors should review their portfolios before the next bear market The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood September 15, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.6% last week to finish at 6,584.3 The stock market rises long-term due to earnings growth and interest rates A stock is ownership in a business Investors are willing to pay more for a dollar’s worth of earnings today than in the past Profit margins are already near record highs The Volatility Index (VIX) closed the week at 14.76 The market is setting new highs The CME FedWatch tool places the odds at 100% for a rate cut Wednesday The August jobs report and last week’s jobs revision are driving rate cut expectations Cutting the fed funds rate isn’t the answer to slower job growth Higher long-term rates will negate any benefit from a rate cut The Stock Market