Executive Summary The S&P finished the week at 6025.99 The S&P has been trading sideways since 11 November Volatility (VIX) has spiked five times since last fall each time falling quickly back to mid-teen levels Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have contributed to the negative tone with cautious guidance The Equity Risk Premium has been falling over the last 14 years Bonds have been a horrible investment over the last three, five, and ten years The jobs market continues to show strength Consumers' inflation expectations are increasing The stock market is expensive and will return less than its long-term average over the next decade Good stock picking will be critical if investors are to earn a return close to the long run average. The equity risk premium is too low which may make Treasury bonds a better investment than stocks on a risk adjusted basis over the next decade. Treasury bonds may outperform stocks over the next decade but not necessarily over the next few years since the 10-Year could rise another 100 basis points in the short term. The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P fell 1% last week, closing Friday at 6,040.53 The index hasn’t been able to break clear of resistance The AI space took a big hit Monday Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China GDP grew 2.3% annually in Q4 The futures market expected the funds rate to remain at 4.25-4.50% and it did The employment cost index (ECI) for Q4 2024 rose 0.9% QoQ Pending home sales took a hit in December The stock market continues to trend higher There is a relationship between the stock market and the economy More Interesting Charts to review